India is grappling with falling rural demand aggravated by unseasonal rains that threaten to destroy what could have been a bumper crop year.
Speaking about the plight of Agri community, Ashok Gulati of ICRIER, said India never had a policy to deal with such emergencies though talks have been going on for a while. Dr Gulati categorized the problem in two parts: One, grain damage and Two, Rabi crop (wheat) damage. He says for the second part of the problem, the government can liquidate its stock and keep cereal prices constant. "We have ample stocks even if Rabi crop is damaged by 5-10 percent."
However, for first part, there is no visible solution. He chuckles at the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) figure which came in at negative 2.06 percent and firmly displaces the myth that inflation in India is declining. "The food articles component in the WPI has risen 20 percent, vegetable, pulses, fruits etc prices have all risen by 15 percent each. . The inflation rates are very-very high and the government is yet to come out with a sustainable plan," Gulati asserted.
Joining in the discussion, Balram Yadav, MD, Godrej Agrovet and Sameer Tandon, Head - National Sales for tractors at Escorts Agri Machinery agreed that the ground situation was alarming.
According to Yadav, initial estimates indicate that Maharashtra alone has Rs 2,500-3,000 cr worth of crop damage. "Maharsahstra is the worst impacted state in the country and the compensation announced can barely cover the losses," feels Yadav
Meanwhile, tractors, which are integral part of agriculture, is seeing suppressed sales for last two quarters. Tandon says the industry will be down by 25 percent this quarter and end the fiscal with a 13 percent year on year decline.
"Agricultural profitability is shrinking since last three years and the policy making circles need to wake up," Dr Gulati said while countering suggestion that fall in rural wage is somewhat arrested.
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